The current market situation is complex and volatile, with many risk factors intertwined. Among them, the escalation of the crisis between Israel and Iran has drawn widespread attention. The release of US inflation data is imminent, and the resumption of trading in China after the long holiday is also highly anticipated. At the same time, we need to be vigilant about the potential impact of the yen's movement on non-US currencies and gold prices.
The risk of escalation of the Iran-Israel crisis cannot be ignored. On the evening of October 1, Iran launched more than 180 missiles to attack Israeli military facilities. On October 3, Israel's air strike on Lebanon caused many casualties. Leaders of the G7 countries held a meeting on the situation in the Middle East, worrying that the crisis may lead to an escalation of regional conflicts and even affect global energy supply. Given that Iran accounts for 3% of oil production, if the crisis triggers a production cut by the oil-producing group, the region accounts for 20% of global oil production. There is a good chance that oil prices will rise back to the range of $80 to $100. At the same time, it is expected to support gold prices.
US inflation data is expected to continue to soften. US inflation data will be released at 8:30 pm on October 10. The market predicts that inflation data will fall from 2.5% to 2.3%. If so, market speculation on interest rate cuts may escalate. Currently, the swap market is relatively optimistic about interest rate cuts. We need to pay attention to changes in officials' attitudes after the data is released, which has a great impact on short-term gold prices.
China's post-holiday resumption is expected to receive support. Before the long holiday, the People's Bank of China took a number of measures to stimulate the economy. After the long holiday, the optimistic sentiment may continue. However, we need to pay attention to consumption figures and economic data performance during the holiday. If the market's confidence in China's economic recovery increases, it will support gold prices.
In addition, we need to beware of the drag of the yen. After Shigeru Ishiba, former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, was elected president, facing the re-election of the parliament, his policy direction and the movement of the yen are worthy of attention. If the yen weakens again, it may drag down non-US currencies and gold prices.
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
The risk of escalation of the Iran-Israel crisis cannot be ignored. On the evening of October 1, Iran launched more than 180 missiles to attack Israeli military facilities. On October 3, Israel's air strike on Lebanon caused many casualties. Leaders of the G7 countries held a meeting on the situation in the Middle East, worrying that the crisis may lead to an escalation of regional conflicts and even affect global energy supply. Given that Iran accounts for 3% of oil production, if the crisis triggers a production cut by the oil-producing group, the region accounts for 20% of global oil production. There is a good chance that oil prices will rise back to the range of $80 to $100. At the same time, it is expected to support gold prices.
US inflation data is expected to continue to soften. US inflation data will be released at 8:30 pm on October 10. The market predicts that inflation data will fall from 2.5% to 2.3%. If so, market speculation on interest rate cuts may escalate. Currently, the swap market is relatively optimistic about interest rate cuts. We need to pay attention to changes in officials' attitudes after the data is released, which has a great impact on short-term gold prices.
China's post-holiday resumption is expected to receive support. Before the long holiday, the People's Bank of China took a number of measures to stimulate the economy. After the long holiday, the optimistic sentiment may continue. However, we need to pay attention to consumption figures and economic data performance during the holiday. If the market's confidence in China's economic recovery increases, it will support gold prices.
In addition, we need to beware of the drag of the yen. After Shigeru Ishiba, former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, was elected president, facing the re-election of the parliament, his policy direction and the movement of the yen are worthy of attention. If the yen weakens again, it may drag down non-US currencies and gold prices.
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
