In the past week, the holiday atmosphere was strong, and the Trump rally also slowed down. The gold market presented a situation where bad news came and went, but the gold price was supported. Subsequently, attention should be paid to whether this situation can continue and whether non-US currencies can obtain short-term support. The new week is also a holiday week. During the New Year holiday, there are relatively few important data and focuses in Europe and the US. Without unexpected news, the market may be relatively slow. However, if there is an emergency, gold and oil may have an opportunity to jump, especially at the end of the year and the beginning of the year when there may be opportunities for active funds to enter the market or even for central banks to increase their gold holdings.
1. Active fund performance at the New Year, end of the month and beginning of the month
The end of the year is often a special period. Many active funds, such as long-term investment funds, retirement funds and multi-asset allocation funds, as well as some central banks, show a preference for entering the market at the end of the month or the beginning of the month. Currently, at the critical juncture of the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the current capital dynamics are an indicator of the asset momentum throughout the year. If funds can enter the market simultaneously this week, it will bring strong support to the gold price. It is worth noting that in the coming week, there will be year-end settlement and dynamic changes in New Year investment funds.
From a longer-term perspective, the performance of funds in the first week, the first month and the first quarter of each year is the focus of market attention. Because the capital flows in these different stages are regarded as indicators of the preferences of large funds and market integration, they will have a non-negligible impact on the prices of assets such as gold and are more likely to trigger market speculation sentiment.
2. Monday market rhythm
Recently, there is an interesting trading rhythm in the gold market, that is, the opportunity to enter the market on the first Monday of each month. Looking back at the market performance in the past few months, it can be found that many large funds also choose to enter the market from the end of the month to the beginning of the week. The market fluctuations on that day are often quite significant, with a fluctuation range of 30 - 40 US dollars. This feature provides short-term traders with certain operating space and profit opportunities. However, it should be noted that this kind of market situation has timeliness and usually only lasts until the European session on that day. After the capital drives the price up and reaches the corresponding technical target, the market usually faces a pullback pressure. Therefore, traders must accurately grasp the trading rhythm to conduct short-term trading operations.
3. China's data performance is worth noting
The new week is still a long holiday period in Europe and the US, and the number of important data available in the market is limited. Under such circumstances, various economic data from China, such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and relevant data released by Caixin, have become the focus of attention for investors and market analysts. These data from China are like a barometer of economic development, which can directly reflect the recovery status of the Chinese economy. Given China's important position as a global gold consumption powerhouse and the approaching of the Spring Festival, a traditional peak season for gold consumption, if the recovery of the Chinese economy is widely recognized by the market, it is very likely to trigger the Spring Festival rally in the gold market. At that time, the gold price is expected to rise, and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, which are closely related to the Chinese economy, will also benefit and receive market support. On the contrary, if the Chinese data fails to meet market expectations and fails to show a positive economic recovery trend, it will put pressure on the gold price, and related currencies such as the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar will also be affected, and their market performance will also be negatively impacted.
4. Focus on gold price in 2025
Gold investment in 2025 is facing many uncertainties. On the one hand, there is an expectation in the market that gold may become a theme for speculation on central bank purchases, attracting more investors to enter the market. However, on the other hand, some views believe that after Trump takes office, gold may face a pullback pressure in the short term, and investors may have to wait until the second half of the year to have a more appropriate opportunity to enter the market. At present, how these two situations will develop remains to be further observed.
At the same time, geopolitical changes are an important factor that cannot be ignored in gold investment. The dynamics of geopolitics have a potential impact on the trend of gold prices, and the evolution of the situation may trigger market fluctuations at any time, thus affecting the direction of gold prices. Looking back at 2024, geopolitical factors, along with the speculation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and central bank gold purchases, constituted the main driving forces for the significant rise in gold prices. Looking forward to 2025, these aspects are still the key factors affecting the trend of gold prices. Of course, the impact of Trump's new policies cannot be ignored either.
5. Pay attention to technical trends
During the current holiday period, the market activity is usually low, and the market progress is relatively slow, generally showing a range-bound consolidation pattern. During this period, investors can grasp the market rhythm through technical analysis methods, such as closely monitoring the top and bottom contact points where the Bollinger Bands intersect with the 5-day moving average in the 4-hour or 1-hour chart. When the price touches the top or bottom of the Bollinger Bands and forms an intersection with the 5-day moving average at the same time, it often indicates that the market may turn, which provides an important reference basis for investors to judge the rhythm of the market cycle and helps them better grasp trading opportunities in market fluctuations.
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
1. Active fund performance at the New Year, end of the month and beginning of the month
The end of the year is often a special period. Many active funds, such as long-term investment funds, retirement funds and multi-asset allocation funds, as well as some central banks, show a preference for entering the market at the end of the month or the beginning of the month. Currently, at the critical juncture of the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the current capital dynamics are an indicator of the asset momentum throughout the year. If funds can enter the market simultaneously this week, it will bring strong support to the gold price. It is worth noting that in the coming week, there will be year-end settlement and dynamic changes in New Year investment funds.
From a longer-term perspective, the performance of funds in the first week, the first month and the first quarter of each year is the focus of market attention. Because the capital flows in these different stages are regarded as indicators of the preferences of large funds and market integration, they will have a non-negligible impact on the prices of assets such as gold and are more likely to trigger market speculation sentiment.
2. Monday market rhythm
Recently, there is an interesting trading rhythm in the gold market, that is, the opportunity to enter the market on the first Monday of each month. Looking back at the market performance in the past few months, it can be found that many large funds also choose to enter the market from the end of the month to the beginning of the week. The market fluctuations on that day are often quite significant, with a fluctuation range of 30 - 40 US dollars. This feature provides short-term traders with certain operating space and profit opportunities. However, it should be noted that this kind of market situation has timeliness and usually only lasts until the European session on that day. After the capital drives the price up and reaches the corresponding technical target, the market usually faces a pullback pressure. Therefore, traders must accurately grasp the trading rhythm to conduct short-term trading operations.
3. China's data performance is worth noting
The new week is still a long holiday period in Europe and the US, and the number of important data available in the market is limited. Under such circumstances, various economic data from China, such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and relevant data released by Caixin, have become the focus of attention for investors and market analysts. These data from China are like a barometer of economic development, which can directly reflect the recovery status of the Chinese economy. Given China's important position as a global gold consumption powerhouse and the approaching of the Spring Festival, a traditional peak season for gold consumption, if the recovery of the Chinese economy is widely recognized by the market, it is very likely to trigger the Spring Festival rally in the gold market. At that time, the gold price is expected to rise, and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, which are closely related to the Chinese economy, will also benefit and receive market support. On the contrary, if the Chinese data fails to meet market expectations and fails to show a positive economic recovery trend, it will put pressure on the gold price, and related currencies such as the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar will also be affected, and their market performance will also be negatively impacted.
4. Focus on gold price in 2025
Gold investment in 2025 is facing many uncertainties. On the one hand, there is an expectation in the market that gold may become a theme for speculation on central bank purchases, attracting more investors to enter the market. However, on the other hand, some views believe that after Trump takes office, gold may face a pullback pressure in the short term, and investors may have to wait until the second half of the year to have a more appropriate opportunity to enter the market. At present, how these two situations will develop remains to be further observed.
At the same time, geopolitical changes are an important factor that cannot be ignored in gold investment. The dynamics of geopolitics have a potential impact on the trend of gold prices, and the evolution of the situation may trigger market fluctuations at any time, thus affecting the direction of gold prices. Looking back at 2024, geopolitical factors, along with the speculation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and central bank gold purchases, constituted the main driving forces for the significant rise in gold prices. Looking forward to 2025, these aspects are still the key factors affecting the trend of gold prices. Of course, the impact of Trump's new policies cannot be ignored either.
5. Pay attention to technical trends
During the current holiday period, the market activity is usually low, and the market progress is relatively slow, generally showing a range-bound consolidation pattern. During this period, investors can grasp the market rhythm through technical analysis methods, such as closely monitoring the top and bottom contact points where the Bollinger Bands intersect with the 5-day moving average in the 4-hour or 1-hour chart. When the price touches the top or bottom of the Bollinger Bands and forms an intersection with the 5-day moving average at the same time, it often indicates that the market may turn, which provides an important reference basis for investors to judge the rhythm of the market cycle and helps them better grasp trading opportunities in market fluctuations.
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
