Recently, the gold price has risen due to factors such as the uncertainty of the US election. Non-US assets have been generally soft but the weakening trend has slowed down. The euro has been supported by the rebound in inflation, and the yen has weakened due to the loss of power of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. The oil price has fallen back due to the mild actions of Israel. The market trend is similar to Royal Capital’s expectations.
 
Looking ahead to next week, the market will be extremely volatile. The US election and the Federal Reserve's decision are highly anticipated. In addition, the decisions of the Australian and British central banks, the selection of the Japanese prime minister, the Chinese People's Congress, and the US Treasury's debt issuance arrangements will all impact the market.
 
In the US election, Trump and Kamala Harris are competing fiercely in the swing states, and Trump has a slight advantage. Before the election, the expectation that Trump will be elected is beneficial to assets such as the US dollar, but this is only a speculation theme. After the election, the market model will change. If Kamala Harris is elected and maintains Biden's policies, non-US assets may be supported and the US dollar may weaken. If Trump is elected, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of his specific policies on the market, including the different effects on US stocks, the US dollar, non-US assets, and the gold price. Moreover, the market sentiment changes triggered by the new president's taking office may also drag down the stock index and the gold price.
 
The result of the US congressional election is also crucial. Different parties between the president and Congress may lead to economic panic, suppressing the stock market and the gold price. The same party is conducive to policy promotion and the stock index.
 
The Federal Reserve's November meeting is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. There is no dot plot in the meeting on November 7. The market is focusing on Powell's speech to explore the signal of interest rate cuts in December. The changes in employment and inflation data have caused market concerns about interest rate cuts. Trump's election may affect Powell's actions and bring unexpected market conditions.
 
The selection of the Japanese prime minister will be held from November 7 to 11. Whether Shigeru Ishiba steps down or not will affect the yen's trend and the non-US and US dollar markets. The Australian central bank's interest rate policy may remain unchanged next week to support the Australian dollar. The Bank of England is facing the expectation of interest rate cuts due to economic pressure. The style of the governor's speech will affect the pound's trend and will also consider the monetary policy of the new US president.
 
The Chinese People's Congress and the Shanghai Import Expo will be held simultaneously. The market is paying attention to the impact of the People's Bank of China's policies on the stock index. The US Treasury's debt issuance plan can affect the debt interest rate and the gold price. In short, there are many key events in the market next week, and investors need to strictly abide by discipline and remain rational when operating.
 
美國大選懶人包！留意美聯儲、英倫銀行決議及日本首相推選
 
近期市場焦點眾多。過去一周，金價因美國大選不確定性等因素上揚，非美資產總體偏軟但走軟態勢放緩，歐元受通脹回升支撐，日元因日本自民黨失勢而疲軟，油價因以色列行動溫和而回落，市場走勢與英倫預期相近。
 
展望下周，行情將異常激烈。美國總統大選與美聯儲決議備受矚目，此外，澳大利亞和英國央行決議、日本首相推選、中國人大會議以及美國財政部發債安排等均將影響市場。
 
美國大選中，特朗普與賀錦麗在搖擺州競爭激烈，特朗普稍佔優勢。選前特朗普當選的預期利好美元等資產，但這僅是炒作主題，選後市場模式將轉變。賀錦麗若當選且維持拜登政策，非美資產或獲支撐，美元可能走軟；特朗普當選則需關注其具體政策對市場的影響，包括對美股、美元、非美資產及金價的不同作用，且新總統上臺引發的市場情緒變化也可能拖累股指和金價。
 
美國國會選舉結果也至關重要，總統與國會不同黨派可能導致經濟恐慌打壓股市及金價，同一黨派則利於政策推進和股指。
 
美聯儲 11 月會議預期降息 25 個基點，11 月 7 日會議無點陣圖，市場關注鮑威爾講話探尋 12 月降息信號，就業與通脹資料變化引發市場對降息的擔憂，特朗普當選或影響鮑威爾行動帶來意外行情。
 
日本首相推選將于 11 月 7 日至 11 日舉行，石破茂下臺與否將影響日元走勢及非美、美元市場。澳大利亞央行下周利率政策或維持不變以支持澳元，英國央行因經濟壓力面臨降息預期，行長講話風格將左右英鎊走勢，且會考慮美國新總統貨幣政策。
 
中國人大會議和上海進博會同期舉行，市場關注中國央行政策對股指的影響。美國財政部發債計畫可影響債息和金價。總之，下周市場關鍵事件眾多，投資者操作需嚴守紀律，保持理性。
 
By Wayne Lai
 
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
 
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.