Hello everyone! In the past week, the performance of gold prices, oil prices, non-US currencies and stock indexes was very close to the analysis of Royal Capital. Gold prices had a chance of a pullback. Oil prices surged and fluctuated. The yen had relatively large downward pressure. Although stock indexes had support, one had to guard against a pullback after a sharp rally. The newly released US non-farm payroll data showed a strong recovery. The market had different views on the Federal Reserve and the US economy, which affected the uptrend of gold prices. The weak yen also dragged down non-US currencies and gold prices.
In the past week, oil prices and stock indexes fluctuated greatly. The tense situation between Israel and Iran supported oil prices. However, after important figures of Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, oil prices were under pressure for a time. Israel's continuous military actions and the storm in Florida, the United States, supported oil prices again. In the future, the market will pay attention to the Middle East situation, the US storm, OPEC's production plans and China's recovery sentiment.
In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that it is unlikely for the Federal Reserve to continuously cut interest rates by 50 basis points at a single time. The US CME FEDwatch's expectation for interest rate cuts in November showed a view of maintaining interest rates unchanged. If this expectation rises, it may hit gold prices. The storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States may affect oil production and circulation. If there is a large-scale power outage and production shutdown, oil prices may rise again. Otherwise, there will be downward pressure on oil prices.
In the coming week, Market focuses in the non-US market. The ECB's decision and the inflation figures of non-US countries are the key points. The UK unemployment rate data may rise significantly, increasing the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates and dragging down gold prices. The ECB's decision may lead to an interest rate cut. If so, it will put pressure on the euro. If Lagarde's speech is dovish, the euro will have greater room for a pullback, which is unfavorable for gold prices. The continuous weakening of the yen may drag down non-US currencies. Generally speaking, the prospects for non-US currencies are not good, and it is also not optimistic for gold prices.
The possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is low. Israel has threatened to attack Iran's oil production facilities. If the conflict expands, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia may jointly oppose Israel and stop crude oil supply. The escalation of risks in the Middle East storm has the greatest impact on crude oil and gold. The possibility of risk cessation is not high. When the situation is unclear, crude oil and gold are elastic but also face selling pressure.
In the new week, the release of several important economic data in China may support A-shares and affect the gold market. However, if market expectations are not met, there will also be selling pressure. US stocks usher in the earnings season. The performance of technology stocks will affect market sentiment. In the coming week, the market will focus on the ECB's decision, economic data of non-US countries, Japan's dynamics, the Middle East situation, China's economic data and the US earnings season. The US storm will also continue to affect the trend of the oil market.
關注歐央行、英就業及日圓趨勢，提防美元反抽
大家好！过去一周，金价、油价、非美货币及股指的表现与英伦的分析十分接近。金价有回吐机会，油价冲高波动，日圆有较大回软压力，股指虽有支撑但需防冲高后回吐。新公布的美非农数据回勇，市场对美联储及美国经济看法不一，影响金价单边行情，日圆偏软也拖累非美货币和金价。
过去一周油价和股指波动大，以色列与伊朗局势紧张支撑油价，但真主党要员同意停战后油价一度受压。以色列持续军事行动和美国佛罗里达州风灾又支撑油价。
未来市场关注中东局势、美国风灾、油组产量计划及中国复苏情绪。 美联储主席鲍威尔近期讲话强调美联储不太可能持续单次降息 50 点，美国掉期市场对 11 月降息预期出现维持利率不变看法，若此预期上扬可能打击金价。美国墨西哥湾风灾可能影响石油产量和流通，若大规模停电停产油价可能再度抽升，反之则有回吐压力。
新一周非美市场焦点众多，欧央行决议及非美国家通胀数字是重点。英国失业率数据可能大幅上行，增加英伦银行降息可能并拖累金价。欧央行决议可能降息，若如此将打压欧元，拉加德讲话偏鸽派会让欧元有更大回吐空间，不利金价。日圆持续走软可能拖累非美货币。总体非美货币前景不佳，对金价也不乐观。
以伊停战可能性低，以色列曾扬言攻打伊朗产油设备，若冲突扩大，沙特等产油国可能联合对抗以色列并停止原油供应。中东风暴风险升级对原油和黄金影响最大，风险停止可能性不高，情况不明时原油和黄金有弹性但也有回套压力。
新一周中国多项重要经济数据公布可能支撑 A 股并影响黄金市场，但市场预期落空也会有回吐压力。美股迎来业绩期，科技股表现将影响市场情绪。未来一周市场聚焦欧央行决议、非美国家经济数据、日本动态、中东局势、中国经济数据及美国业绩期，美国风灾也将持续影响石油市场走势。
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
In the past week, oil prices and stock indexes fluctuated greatly. The tense situation between Israel and Iran supported oil prices. However, after important figures of Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, oil prices were under pressure for a time. Israel's continuous military actions and the storm in Florida, the United States, supported oil prices again. In the future, the market will pay attention to the Middle East situation, the US storm, OPEC's production plans and China's recovery sentiment.
In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that it is unlikely for the Federal Reserve to continuously cut interest rates by 50 basis points at a single time. The US CME FEDwatch's expectation for interest rate cuts in November showed a view of maintaining interest rates unchanged. If this expectation rises, it may hit gold prices. The storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States may affect oil production and circulation. If there is a large-scale power outage and production shutdown, oil prices may rise again. Otherwise, there will be downward pressure on oil prices.
In the coming week, Market focuses in the non-US market. The ECB's decision and the inflation figures of non-US countries are the key points. The UK unemployment rate data may rise significantly, increasing the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates and dragging down gold prices. The ECB's decision may lead to an interest rate cut. If so, it will put pressure on the euro. If Lagarde's speech is dovish, the euro will have greater room for a pullback, which is unfavorable for gold prices. The continuous weakening of the yen may drag down non-US currencies. Generally speaking, the prospects for non-US currencies are not good, and it is also not optimistic for gold prices.
The possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is low. Israel has threatened to attack Iran's oil production facilities. If the conflict expands, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia may jointly oppose Israel and stop crude oil supply. The escalation of risks in the Middle East storm has the greatest impact on crude oil and gold. The possibility of risk cessation is not high. When the situation is unclear, crude oil and gold are elastic but also face selling pressure.
In the new week, the release of several important economic data in China may support A-shares and affect the gold market. However, if market expectations are not met, there will also be selling pressure. US stocks usher in the earnings season. The performance of technology stocks will affect market sentiment. In the coming week, the market will focus on the ECB's decision, economic data of non-US countries, Japan's dynamics, the Middle East situation, China's economic data and the US earnings season. The US storm will also continue to affect the trend of the oil market.
關注歐央行、英就業及日圓趨勢，提防美元反抽
大家好！过去一周，金价、油价、非美货币及股指的表现与英伦的分析十分接近。金价有回吐机会，油价冲高波动，日圆有较大回软压力，股指虽有支撑但需防冲高后回吐。新公布的美非农数据回勇，市场对美联储及美国经济看法不一，影响金价单边行情，日圆偏软也拖累非美货币和金价。
过去一周油价和股指波动大，以色列与伊朗局势紧张支撑油价，但真主党要员同意停战后油价一度受压。以色列持续军事行动和美国佛罗里达州风灾又支撑油价。
未来市场关注中东局势、美国风灾、油组产量计划及中国复苏情绪。 美联储主席鲍威尔近期讲话强调美联储不太可能持续单次降息 50 点，美国掉期市场对 11 月降息预期出现维持利率不变看法，若此预期上扬可能打击金价。美国墨西哥湾风灾可能影响石油产量和流通，若大规模停电停产油价可能再度抽升，反之则有回吐压力。
新一周非美市场焦点众多，欧央行决议及非美国家通胀数字是重点。英国失业率数据可能大幅上行，增加英伦银行降息可能并拖累金价。欧央行决议可能降息，若如此将打压欧元，拉加德讲话偏鸽派会让欧元有更大回吐空间，不利金价。日圆持续走软可能拖累非美货币。总体非美货币前景不佳，对金价也不乐观。
以伊停战可能性低，以色列曾扬言攻打伊朗产油设备，若冲突扩大，沙特等产油国可能联合对抗以色列并停止原油供应。中东风暴风险升级对原油和黄金影响最大，风险停止可能性不高，情况不明时原油和黄金有弹性但也有回套压力。
新一周中国多项重要经济数据公布可能支撑 A 股并影响黄金市场，但市场预期落空也会有回吐压力。美股迎来业绩期，科技股表现将影响市场情绪。未来一周市场聚焦欧央行决议、非美国家经济数据、日本动态、中东局势、中国经济数据及美国业绩期，美国风灾也将持续影响石油市场走势。
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
