The US election triggered the "Trump Rally". As analyzed in the Royal Capital, non-US currencies have been under pressure, while the US dollar and US stocks have been strong. Currencies such as the euro and the yen have declined, with funds flowing into the US dollar and US stocks. The rise in bond yields has hit gold prices. The market anticipates that Trump's policies on tariffs, trade, and tax cuts will increase the US debt and impact non-US economies, leading to pressure on non-US assets, high bond yields, and emerging concerns about inflation, thus giving rise to the "Trump Rally".
The latest decisions of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve maintained rate cuts. However, the remarks of the central bank governors triggered profit-taking in the "Trump Rally". The governors stated that it was too early to discuss the impact of Trump's policies, as he has not yet taken office after all. During this period, the "Trump Trade" may continue to experience fluctuations in speculation and profit-taking. In the future market judgment, in addition to relying on data and the attitudes of central banks, Trump's remarks and the rhythm of the market trend will be crucial factors to consider.
The market expects the US inflation rate to rise from 2.4% to 2.6% next week, which may trigger panic. Because Trump's policies may push up inflation, triggering speculation that the Federal Reserve may stop cutting rates. Swap market data shows that the expected number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has decreased, and the probability of a 2.5-basis-point rate cut in December is approximately 70%. In a high-interest-rate environment, gold has no interest return. If inflation rises, its price will bear significant pressure. High-frequency data shows that wages, timber, and food prices have increased, and although energy prices have declined, the decline is not significant. The possibility of an increase in inflation next week needs to be watched out for.
Next week, many countries will release important data, with particular attention to the inflation rates of non-US countries. The new budget of the Bank of England may push up inflation, so attention should be paid to UK data. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the remarks of Federal Reserve officials, especially those of Jerome Powell. If his policy stance shifts from dovish to hawkish, gold prices may be under pressure. In addition, Trump has proposed a ceasefire plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If it is accepted, the decline in risk aversion will hit gold prices.
Currently, the "Trump Trade" is based on market sentiment. Major policy announcements stimulate the market trend. When there is no new information, profit-taking occurs. US stocks may retreat, while non-US currencies and gold may have a rebound opportunity. The selection of the Prime Minister of Japan affects the market. Whether Shigeru Ishiba can be elected is related to the trend of the yen. The relationship and policies between the new Japanese government and Trump will determine the trend of the yen and also have an impact on the US dollar and gold prices. In conclusion, investors should pay attention to the impact of the "Trump Rally", inflation, the attitude of the Federal Reserve, risk aversion sentiment, and the situation in Japan on the market. It is advisable to focus on short-term trading and pay attention to the rhythm of the market trend.
特朗普行情再現，市場格局重塑
特朗普當選美國總統引發 “特朗普行情”。如英倫分析，非美貨幣受壓，美元和美股強勢，歐元、日元等貨幣回落，資金流向美元和美股，債券利率上升衝擊金價。市場預期特朗普的關稅、貿易、減稅等政策使美國負債增加、衝擊非美經濟，導致非美資產受壓、債券利率居高、通脹隱憂浮現，“特朗普行情” 產生。
英倫銀行與美聯儲最新決議維持降息，但行長講話觸發 “特朗普行情” 獲利回吐，行長表示談特朗普政策影響為時尚早，畢竟他尚未上任。在此期間，“特朗普交易” 可能持續出現炒作與獲利回吐波動。後市市場判斷除依據數據和央行態度外，特朗普講話和行情節奏是關鍵考量因素。
市場預期下周美國通脹率從 2.4% 升至 2.6%，可能引發恐慌，因特朗普政策可能推高通脹，觸發美聯儲停止降息猜測。掉期市場數據顯示 2025 年美聯儲降息預期次數減少、12 月降息預期概率約 70%。高利率環境下，黃金無利率回報，若通脹走高，價格將承受較大壓力。高頻數據顯示工資、木材、食物價格上漲，能源價格雖有回落但幅度不大，需警惕下周通脹上升可能性。
下周多國公佈重要數據，重點關注非美國家通脹率。英倫銀行新預算案可能推高通脹，需留意英國數據。同時，關注美聯儲官員講話，特別是鮑威爾講話，若其政策態度從鴿派轉鷹派，金價可能受壓。此外，特朗普提出俄烏停火方案，若被接受，避險情緒回落衝擊金價。
當前特朗普交易依據市場情緒，重大政策講話刺激行情。無新消息時，出現獲利回套，美股可能回撤，非美貨幣和黃金有反抽機會。日本首相推選影響市場，石破茂能否當選關係日元走勢，新政府與特朗普關係及政策決定日元走向，也波及美元和金價。總之，投資者需關注特朗普行情、通脹、美聯儲態度、避險情緒和日本局勢對市場影響，操作短線為主，留意行情節奏。
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
The latest decisions of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve maintained rate cuts. However, the remarks of the central bank governors triggered profit-taking in the "Trump Rally". The governors stated that it was too early to discuss the impact of Trump's policies, as he has not yet taken office after all. During this period, the "Trump Trade" may continue to experience fluctuations in speculation and profit-taking. In the future market judgment, in addition to relying on data and the attitudes of central banks, Trump's remarks and the rhythm of the market trend will be crucial factors to consider.
The market expects the US inflation rate to rise from 2.4% to 2.6% next week, which may trigger panic. Because Trump's policies may push up inflation, triggering speculation that the Federal Reserve may stop cutting rates. Swap market data shows that the expected number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has decreased, and the probability of a 2.5-basis-point rate cut in December is approximately 70%. In a high-interest-rate environment, gold has no interest return. If inflation rises, its price will bear significant pressure. High-frequency data shows that wages, timber, and food prices have increased, and although energy prices have declined, the decline is not significant. The possibility of an increase in inflation next week needs to be watched out for.
Next week, many countries will release important data, with particular attention to the inflation rates of non-US countries. The new budget of the Bank of England may push up inflation, so attention should be paid to UK data. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the remarks of Federal Reserve officials, especially those of Jerome Powell. If his policy stance shifts from dovish to hawkish, gold prices may be under pressure. In addition, Trump has proposed a ceasefire plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If it is accepted, the decline in risk aversion will hit gold prices.
Currently, the "Trump Trade" is based on market sentiment. Major policy announcements stimulate the market trend. When there is no new information, profit-taking occurs. US stocks may retreat, while non-US currencies and gold may have a rebound opportunity. The selection of the Prime Minister of Japan affects the market. Whether Shigeru Ishiba can be elected is related to the trend of the yen. The relationship and policies between the new Japanese government and Trump will determine the trend of the yen and also have an impact on the US dollar and gold prices. In conclusion, investors should pay attention to the impact of the "Trump Rally", inflation, the attitude of the Federal Reserve, risk aversion sentiment, and the situation in Japan on the market. It is advisable to focus on short-term trading and pay attention to the rhythm of the market trend.
特朗普行情再現，市場格局重塑
特朗普當選美國總統引發 “特朗普行情”。如英倫分析，非美貨幣受壓，美元和美股強勢，歐元、日元等貨幣回落，資金流向美元和美股，債券利率上升衝擊金價。市場預期特朗普的關稅、貿易、減稅等政策使美國負債增加、衝擊非美經濟，導致非美資產受壓、債券利率居高、通脹隱憂浮現，“特朗普行情” 產生。
英倫銀行與美聯儲最新決議維持降息，但行長講話觸發 “特朗普行情” 獲利回吐，行長表示談特朗普政策影響為時尚早，畢竟他尚未上任。在此期間，“特朗普交易” 可能持續出現炒作與獲利回吐波動。後市市場判斷除依據數據和央行態度外，特朗普講話和行情節奏是關鍵考量因素。
市場預期下周美國通脹率從 2.4% 升至 2.6%，可能引發恐慌，因特朗普政策可能推高通脹，觸發美聯儲停止降息猜測。掉期市場數據顯示 2025 年美聯儲降息預期次數減少、12 月降息預期概率約 70%。高利率環境下，黃金無利率回報，若通脹走高，價格將承受較大壓力。高頻數據顯示工資、木材、食物價格上漲，能源價格雖有回落但幅度不大，需警惕下周通脹上升可能性。
下周多國公佈重要數據，重點關注非美國家通脹率。英倫銀行新預算案可能推高通脹，需留意英國數據。同時，關注美聯儲官員講話，特別是鮑威爾講話，若其政策態度從鴿派轉鷹派，金價可能受壓。此外，特朗普提出俄烏停火方案，若被接受，避險情緒回落衝擊金價。
當前特朗普交易依據市場情緒，重大政策講話刺激行情。無新消息時，出現獲利回套，美股可能回撤，非美貨幣和黃金有反抽機會。日本首相推選影響市場，石破茂能否當選關係日元走勢，新政府與特朗普關係及政策決定日元走向，也波及美元和金價。總之，投資者需關注特朗普行情、通脹、美聯儲態度、避險情緒和日本局勢對市場影響，操作短線為主，留意行情節奏。
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
