In the past week, non-US currencies softened as expected. The British pound was particularly notable. The European Central Bank also showed signs of interest rate cuts. Crude oil remained unchanged as it awaits changes in the focus in the Middle East. Gold surged under the impetus of funds, in line with the analysis. The S&P also hit a new high, mainly due to the approaching end of the US presidential election and the arrival of the peak earnings season. The market believes that the simultaneous rise of gold and stocks is supported by the speculation on the US presidential election and the expectation of more accommodative policies in the future, with funds flowing into US stocks and gold.
The UK economic data was soft, and European inflation also retreated, increasing the likelihood of continuous interest rate cuts by non-US central banks. The newly released US non-farm employment and inflation data showed no risk of recession and inflation remained resilient, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The disparity between the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has intensified the weakness of non-US currencies. Next week, the market will continue to focus on the policy expectations of non-US central banks. The softening of non-US currencies may become an important market theme.
Currently, the US dollar has risen, non-US currencies have softened, and US bond yields have risen after consolidation. The rise in gold is mainly driven by funds. This kind of market movement driven purely by funds is risky. With the US presidential election as the speculation topic, it may be an opportunity for large investors to sell off. As the election enters the final three weeks, the market will become more volatile. Short-term operations are advisable. At the same time, beware of the profit-taking situation that may occur when the spot gold price reaches the technical target of 2720 - 2730. Also, pay attention to the developments in the Middle East situation and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials.
Next week's focus is firstly on the earnings season of US stocks. Google, Tesla, and Amazon will announce their earnings. The performance of these giants generally provides significant support for the S&P. At the same time, pay attention to the Japanese parliamentary elections, the International Monetary Fund meeting, the decision of the Bank of Canada, the speeches of the governors of non-US central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, and the development of storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The uncertainty in the Middle East situation and the possible storms in the Gulf of Mexico make oil price fluctuations cannot be ignored. The International Monetary Fund meeting's forecast for the global economy may lower economic growth expectations, putting pressure on oil prices. The changes in the US election and market speculation cannot be ignored.
The US dollar has strongly rebounded since October. The dovish tendency of non-US central banks is the key. If the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates next week, it will bring downward pressure on non-US currencies. If it maintains interest rates unchanged and makes hawkish remarks, it may alleviate the decline of non-US currencies. The speeches of the governors of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also highly concerned.
Japan will hold parliamentary elections on October 27. The results may affect the support for Shigeru Ishiba. If the Liberal Democratic Party suffers a major setback in the elections, it may undermine Shigeru Ishiba's prestige. Currently, the yen has weakened because Shigeru Ishiba believes that the Bank of Japan lacks the conditions for continuous interest rate hikes. Previously, Japan's interest rate hikes may have been in line with the intentions of the US. If the election results are poor and Shigeru Ishiba's support declines or there is even a risk of him stepping down, the yen may strengthen again.
美元、美股升勢未結束？
過去一周，非美貨幣如預期回軟，其中英鎊表現明顯，歐洲央行也有減息跡象。原油維持現狀，等待中東局勢變化。黃金在資金推動下沖高，與分析一致，標普也如提示創了新高，這主要得益于美國總統大選步入尾聲及企業業績高潮來臨。市場認為金股同漲是受美國大選炒作及對未來寬鬆政策的預期，資金流入美股和黃金。
英國經濟資料偏軟，歐洲通脹也回落，增加了非美央行持續減息的可能。美國新公佈的非農就業及通脹資料顯示無衰退風險且通脹有韌性，這使得美聯儲減息預期下降。美聯儲與非美央行的差異加劇了非美貨幣的弱勢，下周市場將繼續關注非美央行政策預期，非美回軟或成重要話題。
目前美元上漲、非美貨幣回軟，美債息整理後上揚，而黃金上漲主要由資金推動，這種純資金帶動的行情有風險。以美國大選為炒作題材，可能是大戶放貨的機會。隨著大選進入最後三周，市場會更加波動，操作宜短線為佳。同時要小心現貨黃金在追高至技術目標 2720 - 2730 後出現獲利回套行情，還需留意中東局勢及美聯儲官員講話的影響。
下周焦點首先是美股業績期，穀歌、特斯拉、亞馬遜將公佈業績，這些巨頭業績表現對標普有較大支持。同時要留意日本國會選舉、國際貨幣基金會議、加拿大央行決議、非美央行行長講話及美國墨西哥灣風暴發展。中東局勢不明及墨西哥灣可能的風暴使油價波動不可忽視，國際貨幣基金組織會議對全球經濟的預測可能下調經濟增長，給油價帶來壓力。美國大選的變化及市場炒作也不容忽視。
美元自 10 月開始強勢反抽，非美央行的鴿派傾向是關鍵。下周加拿大央行若減息，將給非美帶來下行壓力；若維持利率不變並發表鷹派講話，則可能緩解非美跌勢。歐洲央行和英國央行行長的講話也備受關注。
日本將於 10 月 27 日進行國會選舉，結果可能影響石破茂的支持度。若自民黨選舉失利，可能打擊石破茂的威信。當前日元回軟是因為石破茂認為日央行缺乏持續加息條件，而此前日本加息可能是配合美國。若選舉結果不佳，石破茂支持度下降甚至有下臺風險，日元可能重新走強。
The UK economic data was soft, and European inflation also retreated, increasing the likelihood of continuous interest rate cuts by non-US central banks. The newly released US non-farm employment and inflation data showed no risk of recession and inflation remained resilient, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The disparity between the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks has intensified the weakness of non-US currencies. Next week, the market will continue to focus on the policy expectations of non-US central banks. The softening of non-US currencies may become an important market theme.
Currently, the US dollar has risen, non-US currencies have softened, and US bond yields have risen after consolidation. The rise in gold is mainly driven by funds. This kind of market movement driven purely by funds is risky. With the US presidential election as the speculation topic, it may be an opportunity for large investors to sell off. As the election enters the final three weeks, the market will become more volatile. Short-term operations are advisable. At the same time, beware of the profit-taking situation that may occur when the spot gold price reaches the technical target of 2720 - 2730. Also, pay attention to the developments in the Middle East situation and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials.
Next week's focus is firstly on the earnings season of US stocks. Google, Tesla, and Amazon will announce their earnings. The performance of these giants generally provides significant support for the S&P. At the same time, pay attention to the Japanese parliamentary elections, the International Monetary Fund meeting, the decision of the Bank of Canada, the speeches of the governors of non-US central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, and the development of storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The uncertainty in the Middle East situation and the possible storms in the Gulf of Mexico make oil price fluctuations cannot be ignored. The International Monetary Fund meeting's forecast for the global economy may lower economic growth expectations, putting pressure on oil prices. The changes in the US election and market speculation cannot be ignored.
The US dollar has strongly rebounded since October. The dovish tendency of non-US central banks is the key. If the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates next week, it will bring downward pressure on non-US currencies. If it maintains interest rates unchanged and makes hawkish remarks, it may alleviate the decline of non-US currencies. The speeches of the governors of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also highly concerned.
Japan will hold parliamentary elections on October 27. The results may affect the support for Shigeru Ishiba. If the Liberal Democratic Party suffers a major setback in the elections, it may undermine Shigeru Ishiba's prestige. Currently, the yen has weakened because Shigeru Ishiba believes that the Bank of Japan lacks the conditions for continuous interest rate hikes. Previously, Japan's interest rate hikes may have been in line with the intentions of the US. If the election results are poor and Shigeru Ishiba's support declines or there is even a risk of him stepping down, the yen may strengthen again.
美元、美股升勢未結束？
過去一周，非美貨幣如預期回軟，其中英鎊表現明顯，歐洲央行也有減息跡象。原油維持現狀，等待中東局勢變化。黃金在資金推動下沖高，與分析一致，標普也如提示創了新高，這主要得益于美國總統大選步入尾聲及企業業績高潮來臨。市場認為金股同漲是受美國大選炒作及對未來寬鬆政策的預期，資金流入美股和黃金。
英國經濟資料偏軟，歐洲通脹也回落，增加了非美央行持續減息的可能。美國新公佈的非農就業及通脹資料顯示無衰退風險且通脹有韌性，這使得美聯儲減息預期下降。美聯儲與非美央行的差異加劇了非美貨幣的弱勢，下周市場將繼續關注非美央行政策預期，非美回軟或成重要話題。
目前美元上漲、非美貨幣回軟，美債息整理後上揚，而黃金上漲主要由資金推動，這種純資金帶動的行情有風險。以美國大選為炒作題材，可能是大戶放貨的機會。隨著大選進入最後三周，市場會更加波動，操作宜短線為佳。同時要小心現貨黃金在追高至技術目標 2720 - 2730 後出現獲利回套行情，還需留意中東局勢及美聯儲官員講話的影響。
下周焦點首先是美股業績期，穀歌、特斯拉、亞馬遜將公佈業績，這些巨頭業績表現對標普有較大支持。同時要留意日本國會選舉、國際貨幣基金會議、加拿大央行決議、非美央行行長講話及美國墨西哥灣風暴發展。中東局勢不明及墨西哥灣可能的風暴使油價波動不可忽視，國際貨幣基金組織會議對全球經濟的預測可能下調經濟增長，給油價帶來壓力。美國大選的變化及市場炒作也不容忽視。
美元自 10 月開始強勢反抽，非美央行的鴿派傾向是關鍵。下周加拿大央行若減息，將給非美帶來下行壓力；若維持利率不變並發表鷹派講話，則可能緩解非美跌勢。歐洲央行和英國央行行長的講話也備受關注。
日本將於 10 月 27 日進行國會選舉，結果可能影響石破茂的支持度。若自民黨選舉失利，可能打擊石破茂的威信。當前日元回軟是因為石破茂認為日央行缺乏持續加息條件，而此前日本加息可能是配合美國。若選舉結果不佳，石破茂支持度下降甚至有下臺風險，日元可能重新走強。
