Hello everyone! In the past week, the gold price trend was in line with the analysis with Royal Capital. After hitting a new high, it underwent consolidation. The S&P rose, non-US currencies were relatively soft, and the decline in oil prices slowed down.
The US presidential election has entered the last two weeks and is closely related to the risk aversion sentiment of non-US assets. Trump's earlier lead in swing states triggered panic in non-US assets. For example, India has entered the wedding gold buying cycle, and Trump's return has a negative impact on the Indian economy, accelerating the purchasing power of gold. When the Indian stock market fell, gold was supported. However, in the middle of the week, Trump and Kamala Harris were in a seesaw in swing states, leading to profit-taking in the Trump market. It's not that Trump is losing power but that investors lock in profits due to the large asset increase to deal with future uncertainties. In the new week, the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan have important economic news, such as US non-farm employment data. It's also the climax week of the US earnings season. The market speculates that Israel may take actions to support Trump, which will drive asset fluctuations.
In the coming week, the US will announce many important data. The GDP is expected to be strong, non-farm employment is slightly soft but good, there's no recession risk and the job market is healthy. The PCE price index is expected to soften, giving the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates but not a large cut. Continued rate cuts may affect the US dollar's strong position. In terms of non-US, relevant data of Germany in Europe will be announced. If inflation rebounds and the economy is good, the market may re-evaluate the need for the European Central Bank to cut rates, and the euro may rebound. The implementation of the Japanese general election and central bank resolution may support the yen and non-US currencies. If the UK's new government budget can revitalize the economy, the pound may rebound. The expected gap between the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks may narrow, alleviating the weakness of non-US currencies.
US stocks will be the focus next week. The performances of large enterprises such as Google are mostly predicted to be good, supporting the S&P and Nasdaq, but beware of profit-taking pressure. Note the relationship between Israel and Trump and the situation in the Middle East. Its actions have an impact on oil and gold prices.
In the last two weeks of the election, focus on the change in support in swing states. Trump's lead will cause concerns about non-US assets, and Kamala Harris's lead will slow down non-US risk aversion. Also pay attention to candidate speeches and market sentiment changes. Trump's view on the US dollar is worthy of attention. His policies may push up the US dollar and treasury bond interest rates. If bond rates rise and there's no new gold inflow, there will be pressure, and the market will also focus on congressional power separation. In short, market sentiment changes quickly during the election, and short-term trading is advisable.
資金為特朗普回歸做準備
大家好！过去一周金价走势符合英倫分析，创新高后整理，标普上扬，非美货币偏软，油价跌势放缓。 美国总统大选进入最后两周，与非美资产避险情绪紧密相关。特朗普早前在摇摆州领先引发非美资产恐慌，如印度进入婚假买金周期，且特朗普回归对印度经济有负面预期，加速黄金购买力，印度股市跌时黄金获支持。
然而，周中特朗普和贺锦丽在摇摆州选情拉锯，导致特朗普行情获利回吐，并非特朗普失势，而是资产累積大涨幅後，投资者锁定利润应对未來不确定性。新一周美、欧、英、日有重要经济消息，如美国非农就业数据等，还是美国业绩期高潮周，市场炒作以色列或有动作支持特朗普，将推动各类资产波动。
未来一周，美国多项重要数据公布。GDP 预期强劲，非农就业略软但良好，无衰退风险且就业市场健康，PCE 物价指数回软，美联储有减息空间但无需大幅减息，不过持续减息可能影响美元强势地位。非美方面，欧洲德国相关数据将公布，若通胀回升、经济良好，市场或重新评估欧洲央行减息需要，欧元有望反抽。
日本国会大选和央行决议落实可能支持日元，进而支持非美货币。英国新任政府预算案若能振兴经济，英镑有望反弹，美联储与非美央行预期落差可能收窄，缓解非美货币弱势。
美股是下周焦点，谷歌等大企业业绩大多预测向好，对标普和纳指有支持，但要提防回吐压力。需注意以色列与特朗普关系，关注中东状况，其行动对油价和金价有动力。
总统大选最后两周关注摇摆州支持度变化，特朗普领先会引发非美资产担忧，贺锦丽领先则非美避险情绪放缓。还需关注候选人讲话和市场情绪转向，特朗普对美元看法值得关注，其政策可能推高美元和国债利率，国债利率走高而黄金无资金流入会有压力，市场也会关注国会分权情况。总之，大选期间市场情绪变化快，短线操作为宜。
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
The US presidential election has entered the last two weeks and is closely related to the risk aversion sentiment of non-US assets. Trump's earlier lead in swing states triggered panic in non-US assets. For example, India has entered the wedding gold buying cycle, and Trump's return has a negative impact on the Indian economy, accelerating the purchasing power of gold. When the Indian stock market fell, gold was supported. However, in the middle of the week, Trump and Kamala Harris were in a seesaw in swing states, leading to profit-taking in the Trump market. It's not that Trump is losing power but that investors lock in profits due to the large asset increase to deal with future uncertainties. In the new week, the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan have important economic news, such as US non-farm employment data. It's also the climax week of the US earnings season. The market speculates that Israel may take actions to support Trump, which will drive asset fluctuations.
In the coming week, the US will announce many important data. The GDP is expected to be strong, non-farm employment is slightly soft but good, there's no recession risk and the job market is healthy. The PCE price index is expected to soften, giving the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates but not a large cut. Continued rate cuts may affect the US dollar's strong position. In terms of non-US, relevant data of Germany in Europe will be announced. If inflation rebounds and the economy is good, the market may re-evaluate the need for the European Central Bank to cut rates, and the euro may rebound. The implementation of the Japanese general election and central bank resolution may support the yen and non-US currencies. If the UK's new government budget can revitalize the economy, the pound may rebound. The expected gap between the Federal Reserve and non-US central banks may narrow, alleviating the weakness of non-US currencies.
US stocks will be the focus next week. The performances of large enterprises such as Google are mostly predicted to be good, supporting the S&P and Nasdaq, but beware of profit-taking pressure. Note the relationship between Israel and Trump and the situation in the Middle East. Its actions have an impact on oil and gold prices.
In the last two weeks of the election, focus on the change in support in swing states. Trump's lead will cause concerns about non-US assets, and Kamala Harris's lead will slow down non-US risk aversion. Also pay attention to candidate speeches and market sentiment changes. Trump's view on the US dollar is worthy of attention. His policies may push up the US dollar and treasury bond interest rates. If bond rates rise and there's no new gold inflow, there will be pressure, and the market will also focus on congressional power separation. In short, market sentiment changes quickly during the election, and short-term trading is advisable.
資金為特朗普回歸做準備
大家好！过去一周金价走势符合英倫分析，创新高后整理，标普上扬，非美货币偏软，油价跌势放缓。 美国总统大选进入最后两周，与非美资产避险情绪紧密相关。特朗普早前在摇摆州领先引发非美资产恐慌，如印度进入婚假买金周期，且特朗普回归对印度经济有负面预期，加速黄金购买力，印度股市跌时黄金获支持。
然而，周中特朗普和贺锦丽在摇摆州选情拉锯，导致特朗普行情获利回吐，并非特朗普失势，而是资产累積大涨幅後，投资者锁定利润应对未來不确定性。新一周美、欧、英、日有重要经济消息，如美国非农就业数据等，还是美国业绩期高潮周，市场炒作以色列或有动作支持特朗普，将推动各类资产波动。
未来一周，美国多项重要数据公布。GDP 预期强劲，非农就业略软但良好，无衰退风险且就业市场健康，PCE 物价指数回软，美联储有减息空间但无需大幅减息，不过持续减息可能影响美元强势地位。非美方面，欧洲德国相关数据将公布，若通胀回升、经济良好，市场或重新评估欧洲央行减息需要，欧元有望反抽。
日本国会大选和央行决议落实可能支持日元，进而支持非美货币。英国新任政府预算案若能振兴经济，英镑有望反弹，美联储与非美央行预期落差可能收窄，缓解非美货币弱势。
美股是下周焦点，谷歌等大企业业绩大多预测向好，对标普和纳指有支持，但要提防回吐压力。需注意以色列与特朗普关系，关注中东状况，其行动对油价和金价有动力。
总统大选最后两周关注摇摆州支持度变化，特朗普领先会引发非美资产担忧，贺锦丽领先则非美避险情绪放缓。还需关注候选人讲话和市场情绪转向，特朗普对美元看法值得关注，其政策可能推高美元和国债利率，国债利率走高而黄金无资金流入会有压力，市场也会关注国会分权情况。总之，大选期间市场情绪变化快，短线操作为宜。
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
